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SSM - Population Health

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match SSM - Population Health's content profile, based on 17 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Psychosocial Stress and Allostatic Load Among Underrepresented Minority Women with Familial Cancer Risk

Shachar, E. K.; Haas, R.; Rodriguez, V. E.; Lester, J.; Siavoshi, M. A.; Kwan, L.; Niell-Swiller, M.; Spellman, P. T.; Boutros, P. C.; Chang, V. Y.; Karlan, B. Y.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361226 medRxiv
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Importance: Chronic stress may contribute to adverse health outcomes through cumulative physiologic dysregulation. Allostatic load (AL), a composite measure of multisystem physiologic burden, may capture biologic effects of structural, social, and psychosocial stress not reflected by self-reported measures. Objective: To evaluate racial and ethnic differences in AL among women with familial cancer risk and examine how socioeconomic status, psychosocial factors, clinical characteristics, and health behaviors contribute to variations in AL. Design: Cross-sectional study of underrepresented minority participants enrolled in the HERSTORY cohort from October 2023 through September 2025, with comparison participants from the UCLA ATLAS biobank. Setting: UCLA academic health system. Participants: The study included 303 racially and ethnically diverse female HERSTORY participants aged [≥]35 years with a family history of cancer and matched non-Hispanic White female ATLAS participants (n=709). Exposures: Race and ethnicity, age, neighborhood deprivation, cancer history and stage, depression, perceived stress, cancer worry, and physical activity. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was AL, calculated from cardiometabolic and organ-function measures. A secondary index incorporated race- and ethnicity-specific neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) derived from 326,826 women in the UCLA Health population. Multivariable regression models evaluated factors associated with elevated AL. Results: Compared with matched non-Hispanic White participants, Black and Asian/Pacific Islander HERSTORY participants had significantly higher AL after adjustment. Hispanic/Latina participants did not have significantly elevated AL. Older age, greater area-level socioeconomic deprivation, and depression were independently associated with higher AL. Prior cancer diagnosis, cancer worry and perceived stress were not significantly associated with AL, whereas regular physical activity was associated with lower AL. Among cancer patients, advanced stage was associated with greater AL. Conclusions and Relevance: This study demonstrates elevated AL among understudied racial/ethnic minority groups with familial cancer risk and identifies associations with neighborhood deprivation, depression, and physical activity. The association between cancer stage and AL suggests that physiologic stress may reflect variation in cancer burden. The lack of association with perceived stress and cancer worry further indicates that physiologic and self-reported psychosocial measures capture distinct dimensions of stress. The development of race/ethnicity-specific NLR thresholds derived from large population samples provide a benchmark for future studies.

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The Right to Sexual and Reproductive Health among Migrant Workers in Taiwan: Stakeholder Perspectives through an AAAQ Analysis

Tang, P.; Lu, M. W.-H.; Yeung, K.-T.; Guo, B. J.; Wei, K.-F. N.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361458 medRxiv
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Background Global labor migration from LMIC to higher-income destinations has expanded rapidly, placing increasing pressure on destination-country health. Existing research on cross-border migrant workers has focused largely on occupational health, general healthcare utilization, and disease-specific risks, while there is considerably less evidence on their sexual and reproductive health. This study contributes to this understudied field by examining the policy and health-system factors that shape the sexual and reproductive health services for migrant workers in Taiwan. Methods A qualitative study was conducted in Taiwan between November 2025 and August 2026. 22 stakeholders were purposively recruited from academia, healthcare, nongovernmental organizations, government, labor brokerage, and employers. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and small focus groups. Interviews were conducted in Mandarin Chinese, transcribed verbatim, and translated into English. Data were analyzed using framework analysis combining deductive coding based on the AAAQ framework with inductive coding of implementation and contextual themes. Results Gaps were identified across all four AAAQ dimensions. Participants described limited migrant-responsive SRH programming; physical, financial, administrative, social, and information barriers; shortcomings in linguistic and cultural responsiveness; and weaknesses in interpretation, coordination, and continuity of care, despite generally favorable views of Taiwan's clinical quality. Conclusions Our findings show that broad insurance coverage and strong clinical capacity do not by themselves ensure the realization of migrant workers' SRHR. In Taiwan, rights were mediated through labor brokerage, gendered live-in work arrangements, and fragmented governance across health, labor, immigration, and social-welfare systems. Improving migrant SRHR therefore requires stronger implementation of existing protections, reduced dependence on informal intermediaries, and more integrated institutional responsibility for cross-sector migrant health needs.

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The effectiveness of a complex intervention, aimed at reducing hospital occupancy, to improve Emergency Department patient flow: a retrospective controlled interrupted time series

McHenry, R. D.; Caesar, D.; Clarke, B.; Mackay, D.; Pell, J.

2026-09-03 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361802 medRxiv
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Objectives Emergency department (ED) crowding is recognised as an important public health concern internationally, and is driven principally by exit block, the shortage of inpatient beds for patients requiring admission. This study aimed to evaluate whether a complex intervention targeting hospital occupancy improved ED patient flow, and quantified the change in attendances. Methods A controlled interrupted time series using weekly, publicly reported Public Health Scotland data from 1 January 2022 to 1 February 2026. The multi-component intervention focused on reducing hospital occupancy and included additional adult social care funding; engagement with regional social care providers; accelerated implementation of the Discharge without Delay programme; re-evaluation of whole-hospital escalation thresholds and response; resource and data supporting inpatient department reductions in length of stay; and additional investment in remote clinical assessment. The intervention commenced at a large tertiary ED on 01 February 2025. Primary outcomes were the proportions of attendances spending [≥]4, [≥]8 and [≥]12 hours in the ED. The secondary outcome was attendance volume. Segmented regression was fitted with a contemporaneous control series, seasonal terms and autoregressive moving average errors. Long waits were additionally illustrated as potentially avoided deaths. Results The analysis covered 161 pre-intervention and 52 post-intervention weeks. Relative to pre-intervention levels, the proportion of attendances waiting over 4 hours fell by 10.4% (95% CI 1.6 to 19.2%), by 16.4% (95%CI 1.3 to 31.5%) over 8 hours and by 24.3% (95%CI 2.6 to 46.1%) over 12 hours. Using established associations between long ED waits and excess mortality, by one-year the intervention was potentially associated with 54 fewer excess deaths (95%CI 19 to 93). Attendances rose by 3.8% (95%CI 1.3 to 6.4%) against the counterfactual. Conclusions A complex intervention targeting hospital occupancy was associated with a reduction in long ED waits despite rising attendances. Interventions addressing hospital occupancy can meaningfully improve ED crowding.

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Does intimate partner violence associate with postnatal care utilization? Evidence from Tanzanias 2022 Demographic and Health Survey

Juma, N. A.; Bofu, R. M.; Kessy, J.; Burke, J.

2026-09-03 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361973 medRxiv
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Postnatal care (PNC) is essential for reducing preventable maternal and neonatal deaths, but its utilization remain low across sub-Saharan Africa. Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) may be an under-recognized barrier to PNC utilization, particularly in Tanzania, where direct evidence shows that IPV is linked to limited utilization of PNC. Therefore, this study assessed the association between IPV and PNC utilization within 42 days postpartum among women in Tanzania. This study conducted a secondary analysis of the 2022 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey. The analysis included 2,674 women aged 15-49 years who had a live birth in the five years preceding the survey and were selected for the domestic violence module. IPV (any, physical, sexual, and emotional) was the primary exposure, and PNC utilization within 42 days postpartum was the outcome. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (cPR/aPR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) because the prevalence of the outcome was common. The prevalence of PNC utilization within 42 days postpartum was 42.0%, and the overall prevalence of IPV was 33.6% (physical 26.1%, emotional 21.8% and sexual 7.3%). Women who experienced any IPV had 16% lower PNC utilization than those who did not (aPR=0.84; 95% CI: 0.74-0.96). Physical IPV (16%, aPR=0.84; 95% CI: 0.73-0.96) and sexual IPV (25%, aPR=0.75; 95% CI: 0.57-0.98) were significantly associated with lower PNC utilization, while emotional IPV was not. Maternal education, partners age, travel time to the nearest health facility, and media exposure were also other covariates associated with PNC utilization. Intimate partner violence is associated with low utilization of PNC within 42 days postpartum in Tanzania. Integrating IPV screening and survivor support into postnatal care services, alongside addressing structural barriers to access, may improve postpartum care coverage and maternal-neonatal outcomes.

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A Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating a Community-Based, Family Network Heart Health Intervention - the SERVE OC Trial: Design, Rationale and Baseline Findings

Boden-Albala, B.; Wing, J.; Landry, M. J.; Castro, M.; Gutierrez, D.; Cardenas, C.; Rousseau, J.; Rahmani, A. M.; Chavez, A.; Ding, X.; Kurzman, A.; Albala, B.

2026-09-02 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361871 medRxiv
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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately burdens underserved communities, where social determinants of health (SDOH) perpetuate persistent disparities. Family-based interventions leveraging social support represent a promising yet understudied approach. We describe the rationale, design, and methods of the Skills-based Educational strategies for the Reduction of Vascular Events in Orange County (SERVE OC) RCT and present baseline characteristics of enrolled families. Methods: SERVE OC is a 2-arm RCT of 190 Latino and Vietnamese families (486 individuals) randomized to the family-based intervention or individual self-management. The intervention was grounded in social network theory while employing community engaged strategies. Primary outcomes include achieving ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) defined by AHA Life's Essential 8 (LE8) and systolic blood pressure reduction at 12, 24, and 36 months. Baseline assessments include demographics, LE8, psychosocial factors, food security, and SDOH. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses examined cohort characteristics and associations between SDOH, food security, and LE8. Results: Over 83% of participants had suboptimal LE8 scores. Average adult total LE8 scores were 66.61 {plus minus}11.96, with physical activity as the weakest domain, compared to an average of 76.52{plus minus}10.15 in children. Greater SDOH burden and food security were associated with significantly lower odds of ideal CVH and lower LE8 scores respectively. Conclusions: SERVE OC demonstrates the feasibility of enrolling families in community-engaged RCT targeting CVD disparities in underserved population. Baseline findings confirm substantial CVD risk and SDOH burden underscoring the need for multi-level, culturally tailored interventions. Trials results will inform scalable, family-focused strategies for CVD prevention across the life course. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/; Unique Identifier: NCT05641519.

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Prevalence and Functional Outcomes of Post-Exertional Malaise among Adults with prior COVID-19: Results from a Representative Survey of New York City Residents

Packard, S. E.; Russo, T.; Parrott, J.; Sisti, J.; Lans, A.

2026-09-02 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.31.26356614 medRxiv
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Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of Post-Exertional Malaise (PEM) among adults with prior COVID-19 and associated mental health and disability outcomes. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data from a survey of 9,620 adults with prior COVID-19 in New York City, collected May - June 2024. PEM was measured with the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire - Post Exertional Malaise, categorized by symptom duration (< 14 vs. [&ge;]14 hours). Weighted prevalence estimates were stratified by socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. Modified Poisson regression was used to assess the association of PEM with depression, anxiety, and disability. Results: The prevalence of PEM symptoms was 20.9% overall and 4.0% with symptom duration [&ge;]14 hours, representing over 800,000 New Yorkers affected and over 150,000 who meet a diagnostic criterion for ME/CFS. PEM prevalence was higher among women, transgender and non-binary adults, people of color, and lower educational attainment, chronic comorbidities, or disabilities. PEM was associated with 3 - 4 times higher prevalence of mental health outcomes and 4 - 5 times higher disability scores. Conclusions: PEM symptoms were common and strongly associated with disability and adverse mental health. Screening, pathways to care, and supportive policies are needed to mitigate long-term consequences, particularly among marginalized populations.

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Assessing hospital workers' health: a tool for longitudinal health monitoring in a public tertiary hospital in Brazil's Unified Health System (SUS)

Amancio, R. T.; Cruz, L. N.; Dantas, R. d. S.; Gomes, M. P.; Silva, A. d. A. B. d.; Brasil, P. E.

2026-08-31 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361318 medRxiv
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Background: Health and administrative professionals in tertiary hospitals face high levels of occupational stress, mental illness, and multimorbidity. The integrated measurement of these multidimensional health aspects is essential for informing effective workplace health promotion strategies. Objective: To describe the general health status of federal public hospital staff and correlate the measured health dimensions to inform institutional health promotion initiatives. Methods: A cross-sectional, online survey study was conducted at Hospital Universitario dos Servidores do Estado (HUSE) between November and December 2025. Data collection was performed via online REDCap questionnaires covering sociodemographic profiles and validated instruments (SRQ-20, MIDAS, AUDIT, WHOQOL-BREF, PHI, WHOQOL-SRPB BREF, CBI, GPAQ, and EPSO). Descriptive statistics, comparisons across employment ties (permanent vs. contracted staff), and Spearman correlation matrices were calculated. Results: Among 197 accesses, 117 completed the informed consent, and 86 finished all questionnaires. Participants were predominantly female, aged 40 to 60 years, and Christian. Screening positivity was 25% for common mental disorders, 21% for headache-related disability, and 10% for harmful drinking. Burnout scores clustered in the second quartile, while quality of life, happiness, and spirituality scores were in the upper third. Median physical activity was 670 min/week. Mental symptoms (SRQ-20), headache (MIDAS), and burnout (CBI) correlated positively with each other and negatively with quality of life, happiness, spirituality, and institutional support (EPSO). Conclusion: The set of instruments proved feasible for situational health diagnosis among hospital staff. Although the sample size was limited in this baseline wave, the initiative fostered workplace health awareness, driving concrete initiatives, including an on-site functional gym and workplace vaccination campaigns.

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Age Differences in the Reproducibility of Seasonal Peak Timing for Alcohol-Associated Injury: A Seven-Year Cosinor and Jackknife Analysis of U.S. Emergency Department Surveillance Data

Ghuman, D.; Achar, T.; Gambhirrao, D.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361527 medRxiv
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Background Alcohol-associated injury is a leading cause of emergency department (ED) utilization in the United States and a clinically important driver of preventable morbidity across the adult lifespan. Prior surveillance research has characterized how the rate and severity of alcohol-associated injury vary by patient age, but whether the seasonal timing of injury risk is equally predictable across age groups (a question directly relevant to the timing of clinical screening intensification and public health intervention) has not been formally tested. Methods We conducted a retrospective surveillance analysis of 45,876 alcohol-associated ED visits among adults aged 18 years and older, identified from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS), 2019-2025 (weighted national estimate: 2,092,319 visits), using the structured Alcohol_Involved indicator introduced into NEISS case abstraction in 2019. Patients were stratified by sex and five age groups (18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64, and [&ge;]65 years). Single-harmonic cosinor (Poisson) regression was used to estimate the seasonal peak day of injury risk (acrophase) for each stratum. To assess reliability, we performed leave-one-year-out jackknife resampling (seven iterations per group), case-resampling bootstrap confidence intervals (1,000 iterations), and likelihood-ratio tests of seasonal-phase interactions. Results Peak injury timing differed significantly across age groups (X^2 [8] = 2356.2, p < .0001). Adults aged 25-64 years showed a highly reproducible early-to-mid-July peak, with jackknife estimates shifting [&le;]14 days when any single study year was excluded. Adults aged [&ge;]65 years showed significant seasonal variation annually (all p < .0001, amplitude comparable to younger groups) but a pooled peak estimate that shifted by up to 100 days across jackknife iterations. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that this instability was driven entirely by females aged [&ge;]65 years (jackknife range: 332 days, peak consistently in late October through early January) rather than males aged [&ge;]65 (jackknife range: 31 days, peak consistently in early August). Hospital admission rates increased monotonically with age from 9.0% (18-24 years) to 31.8% ([&ge;]65 years). Conclusions Alcohol-associated injury follows a reproducible, calendar-stable summer seasonal pattern in adults aged 25-64 years. Among adults [&ge;]65 years, the previously reported temporal instability is concentrated in the female subgroup, whose seasonal injury risk does not converge on a fixed calendar window. These findings suggest that fixed-calendar prevention and screening strategies are well suited to working-age adults and older men, but older women may require a year-round, individually tailored approach. Keywords: Alcohol-related injury; Emergency department; Seasonality; Age factors; Sex differences; Injury surveillance; Cosinor analysis; Older adults

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Assessing the association between contraceptive agency and preference-aligned fertility management among Ugandan women: A 12-month prospective cohort study

Birabwa, C.; Wasswa, R.; Amongin, D.; Rakesh, G.; Beth, P.; Sneha, C.; Gomez, R.; Atuyambe, L.; Liu, J.; Waiswa, P.; Holt, K.

2026-08-31 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361582 medRxiv
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Background There has been a proliferation of new person-centered and human rights-based contraception measures in recent years, though their application in research remains limited. Improved measures offer an opportunity to examine how contraceptive decision-making agency relates to individuals ability to act in line with their contraceptive preferences. We sought to assess the association between contraceptive agency and subsequent Preference-aligned Fertility Management (PFM) over 12 months in a cohort of women in rural Uganda. Methods We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study conducted in five largely rural Ugandan districts from 2022 to 2024. Data were collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months from a convenience sample of women who were new users of contraception or not using contraception. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models to examine the association between baseline Agency in Contraceptive Decisions Scale overall and subscale scores and future PFM Index scores at 6 and 12 months, assessing whether associations varied over time using interaction terms for follow-up time point. We used interactions between agency scores and follow-up visit to assess whether associations differed between the 6- and 12-month visits. We assessed effect modification by age group and baseline contraceptive method category using three-way interaction terms and predicted probabilities. Results The analytic sample comprised 2,227 women. The percentage of women practicing PFM increased from 85.7% at baseline to 93.3% at 12 months. A one-unit increase in Agency in Contraceptive Decisions Scale score was associated with higher odds of subsequent PFM (aOR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.10-2.54). Subscales 3 (knowledge aligned with preferences) and 4 (control over use or non-use) of the Agency in Contraceptive Decisions Scale were significantly associated with future PFM (aOR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.04-1.66 and aOR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.06-1.51, respectively). The association between overall contraceptive agency and PFM did not differ between the 6- and 12-month visits. Three-way interaction tests suggested that the associations between the overall Agency in Contraceptive Decisions Scale score and the PFM outcomes varied jointly by age group and baseline contraceptive method category: overall PFM Index (p<0.001), PFM1 (p=0.011), and PFM2 (p<0.001). Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher levels of contraceptive agency may help women act in line with their contraceptive preferences. Increasing womens knowledge and control over contraceptive use may be particularly essential for preferred contraceptive use. The findings also suggest that the association between contraceptive agency and PFM may vary by womens age group and the method of choice, though further exploration is necessary to examine this influence.

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Socioeconomic position, adverse childhood experiences, and menstrual symptoms in two generations of a prospective UK cohort.

Sawyer, G.; Farooq, B.; Birnie, K.; Fraser, A.; Lawlor, D. A.; Sharp, G. C.; Howe, L. D.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361513 medRxiv
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Background: Inequalities exist for many health outcomes, but there is limited evidence regarding menstrual symptoms despite their importance for health and wellbeing. We aimed to investigate inequalities in menstrual symptoms according to socioeconomic position and childhood adversity. Methods: In two generations (G0 mothers and G1 offspring) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK prospective cohort study, we examined associations of multiple indicators of socioeconomic position (SEP) and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) with menstrual symptoms (pain, abnormal uterine bleeding, and premenstrual syndrome (PMS) measured 3-8-years post-birth in G0 and 17-21-years-old in G1), using multivariable logistic regression. Samples ranged from 4,828 to 9,335 G0 participants and 1,288 to 2,757 G1 participants depending on the exposure-outcome association. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting. Results: Financial difficulties were associated with greater odds of menstrual pain (G1 OR 1.41; 95% CI 1.07, 1.86: G0 OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.36, 1.76) and irregular cycles (G1 OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.12, 2.29: G0 OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.27, 1.72) in both generations, as well as with short/long cycle lengths in G0 only. Lower education and manual social class were also associated with these three menstrual symptoms in at least one generation. Conversely, higher SEP was associated with PMS in both generations. Higher cumulative ACEs were consistently associated with menstrual pain (4+ compared to none: G1 OR 2.15; 95% CI 1.48, 3.11: G0 OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.29, 1.80) and irregular cycles (G1 OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.20, 3.09: G0 OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.26, 1.87) but not cycle length. Lower parental education, financial difficulties, and cumulative ACEs were associated with heavy bleeding in G1 offspring only, whereas financial difficulties, own manual social class, and cumulative ACEs were associated with prolonged bleeding in G0 mothers only. Higher cumulative ACEs were also associated with PMS in G1 offspring only. Conclusions: We found evidence of inequalities according to socioeconomic disadvantage and childhood adversity for multiple menstrual symptoms, although some associations were only observed in one generation. Findings suggest that menstrual symptoms are disproportionately experienced by socially and socioeconomically disadvantaged women.

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From Structural Resources to Latent Protective Capacity: A Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Flood Exposure and Depressive Symptoms in Indonesia

Yakubu, S.; Mousavi, S.; Eden, J.; Kabajulizi, J.; Palade, V.; Daneshkhah, A.

2026-09-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361712 medRxiv
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Communities exposed to flooding can experience markedly different mental health outcomes, yet conventional resilience indicators capture only part of the social and contextual conditions that may explain this variation. This study develops a multilevel and predictive framework for examining community resilience and depressive symptoms following flood exposure in Indonesia. Data were drawn from 20,303 respondents aged 15 years and older nested within 312 communities in the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS-5). Depressive symptoms were assessed using the 10-item Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10), with Rasch Partial Credit Model calibration used to examine measurement properties. Bayesian multilevel models quantified between-community heterogeneity and assessed how far observable structural resources accounted for this variation. Community resilience was represented through two complementary constructs: structural resilience, based on observable socioeconomic and social-capital resources, and Latent Community Protective Capacity (LCPC), a model-derived proxy for residual contextual variation in depressive-symptom risk. Approximately 6 percent of variation was attributable to between-community differences, while observable structural resources explained only part of this heterogeneity. Structural resilience and LCPC were weakly correlated (r = 0.155). Moderation analyses provided no clear evidence that structural resilience altered the flood-depression association, while LCPC showed a directionally consistent but uncertain buffering pattern. Predictive models incorporating community-level information improved discrimination, with the best-performing model reaching an ROC-AUC of approximately 0.71. The findings suggest that observable resource-based indices provide an incomplete account of community-level mental health vulnerability and that residual contextual measures may provide complementary information, while requiring cautious interpretation and independent validation.

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From Housing to Hotspots: Integrating a Housing-Based Measure of Individual Socioeconomic Status with Geospatial Analysis to Target Colorectal Cancer Screening in Rural Communities

Yao, R.; Wi, C.-I.; Beenken, M. J.; Watson, D.; Wheeler, P. H.; Finch, M.; Kelleher, D. P.; Anil, G.; Anderson, T.; Madden, K.; Okuno, S. H.; Odedina, F. T.; Westfall, E. C.; Park, E. Y.; Sharma, P.; Dugani, S.; Foss, R. M.; Hidaka, B. H.; Sosso, J. L.; Sabarish, S.; Singh, G.; Lugo-Fagundo, N.; Howick, J.; Kim, W. R.; Calvin, A. D.; Walker-Mcgill, C. L.; Rennert, L.; Juhn, Y. J.; Cerhan, J. R.; Lynch, B. A.

2026-09-02 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361444 medRxiv
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Purpose: This study assesses the association between colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and a validated, housing-based measure of individual-level socioeconomic status (SES, called HOUSES hereafter) within rural communities and determines whether HOUSES-integrated geospatial analysis can be used to tailor interventions. Methods: We used CRC screening data from a subset of Mayo Clinic Midwest patients living in cities without ready access to routine care in the Mayo Clinic Health System in 2019 to represent rural communities. At the individual level, we assessed the association between CRC screening rates and the HOUSES index, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, comorbidity, distance from home address to clinic, and area deprivation index, using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model. Additionally, we conducted geospatial analysis to examine the correlation between hotspots of 1) lower CRC screening rates and 2) lower SES of the subject population (HOUSES quartile 1). Findings: Among 34,489 individuals (median age 64.0 years, 52.4% female), those with the lowest SES (HOUSES Q1) had 37% lower odds of being CRC screening adherent than those with the highest SES (HOUSES Q4) (adj. OR [95% CI]: 0.63 [0.58-0.69]). In the 14 identified HOUSES Q1 hotspots, there was a significant correlation in counts of HOUSES Q1 and low CRC screening (correlation coefficient=0.81). Conclusion: Lower SES was significantly associated with lower CRC screening among rural populations. HOUSES-enabled geospatial analysis identified geographic hotspots with lower CRC screening rates for targeted interventions to address disparities in CRC screening in rural communities. HOUSES may be a useful digital tool for cancer preventive care and research.

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Inferential instability of national sugar and sweetener availability as an indicator of adult obesity trajectories: A global within-between panel audit

Nkulikwa, Z. A.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.25.26360957 medRxiv
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The analysis uses a global 2010-2023 panel comprising 3,038 economy-years across 217 economies. It explicitly separates between-economy and within-economy estimands and tests the longitudinal interpretation using an identical-sample temporal analysis with cluster-aware coefficient contrasts, a formal isometric log-ratio sensitivity analysis, independent fixed-effects replication, and wild-cluster-bootstrap inference. The central finding is deliberately calibrated: cross-economy agreement cannot validate national sugar availability for longitudinal obesity surveillance. The study identifies temporal and construct instability without claiming that sugar is protective or that the mechanisms producing the instability have been identified. The manuscript aligns well with PLOS ONEs emphasis on technically sound, transparent and reproducible research of broad relevance. All data required to reproduce the findings, complete metadata, executable code, full-precision results, diagnostic outputs and a completed STROBE checklist are provided as S1-S5. Figures are provided separately as compliant 350-dpi TIFF files. The study used only publicly available, aggregated economy-year statistics and involved no individual participants, identifiable information or biological specimens; institutional ethics review and consent were therefore not required. This is original work; it is not under consideration elsewhere, and the sole author has approved the submission and accepts responsibility for its content. Funding and competing-interest declarations will be entered accurately in the submission portal. An Academic Editor with expertise in nutritional epidemiology, global health metrics, longitudinal panel methods, or food-system surveillance would be well placed to assess the work.

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Household hunger trajectories and mental health symptoms of adolescent girls and young women in rural South Africa: an HPTN-068 longitudinal study

Chakraborty, R.; Rosenberg, M.; Weigel, M. M.; Pettifor, A.; Kahn, K.; Gomez-Olive, F. X.

2026-09-03 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361988 medRxiv
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Purpose Despite the high documented prevalence of hunger and poor mental health in adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa, this relationship remains understudied, with existing studies limited by their cross-sectional designs. This longitudinal study aimed to identify the association of hunger trajectories with anxiety and depressive symptoms, and hope in AGYW. Methods We used secondary data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) -068 conducted in rural Agincourt, South Africa. Complete data from 1779 AGYW collected at baseline (2011/12) and three annual follow-up visits were used. Hunger trajectories, measured using the Household Hunger Scale, were estimated via Group-Based Trajectory Modelling. Self-reported incident anxiety and depressive symptoms and hope were assessed based on AGYWs last two follow-up visits. Covariate adjusted modified Poisson regression models estimated the association between hunger trajectories and incident anxiety symptoms, incident depressive symptoms, and hope. Results Moderate-severe hunger was prevalent in 11.0%, 10.8%, and 6.0% of the households at baseline, follow-up 1, and 2, respectively. Incident anxiety symptoms were reported by 4.5%, incident depressive symptoms by 20.0% and hopelessness by 52.8% of the AGYW. Two hunger trajectories were identified- no hunger (82%) and marginal hunger (18%). Hunger trajectories were not associated with incident anxiety symptoms [RR:1.09, 95% CI: 0.55, 2.18], incident depressive symptoms [RR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.33] nor hope [RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.23] in AGYW. Conclusion Better understanding of the factors that promote resiliency and mental health of AGYW in this setting is warranted to inform the design of interventions.

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Increasing Lung Cancer Screening Participation Using an Informational Video Nudge: A Randomized Feasibility Trial

Wain, K. F.; Carroll, N. M.; Maclennan, A. J.; Hixon, B.; Steiner, J.; Ritzwoller, D. P.

2026-09-01 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361654 medRxiv
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Purpose: Lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) reduces lung cancer mortality, yet screening participation remains low. We evaluated whether a brief informational video nudge delivered immediately before a scheduled clinical encounter increased LCS ordering and baseline LCS completion. Patients and Methods: We conducted a randomized feasibility trial within Kaiser Permanente Colorado from March through October 2025. LCS-eligible patients with an upcoming primary care or pulmonology appointment were assigned to intervention or usual care based on birth month. Intervention patients were split into two group, a group who received the LCS informational video nudge via text message within 24 hours of an eligible appointment; and second group who received the text plus a QR code video link during appointment rooming. Outcomes included LCS orders, baseline LCS-LDCT completion, and video engagement. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with LCS ordering. Results: Among 1,093 patients, 549 were assigned to intervention and 544 to usual care. Intervention patients were more likely to receive an LCS order within 1 day of their appointment (22.6% vs 16.4%; p=.010) and any time during follow-up (32.6% vs 24.1%; p=.002). Baseline LCS-LDCT completion was 51% higher in the intervention group, although the difference was not statistically significant (8.6% vs 5.7%; p=.078). Among the intervention group, 93 individuals (17%) viewed the video, generating 114 total views, and viewers watched an average of 79% of the video. Most views (82.5%) occurred through text-message delivery rather than QR codes. Conclusion: A brief, low-burden LCS informational video delivered immediately before a clinical encounter and integrated into existing workflows significantly increased LCS ordering and was associated with higher screening completion. Timely, scalable digital nudges may provide an effective strategy for improving LCS participation. Based on the observed effectiveness, feasibility, and efficiency of the intervention, KPCO incorporated the behavioral nudge into standard clinical care in February 2026.

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Plasma and follicular fluid concentrations of carotenoids, tocopherols and retinol in a French population of women undergoing in vitro fertilization: a monocentric non-interventional study

Ndiaye, A.; Thiebaut, A. C. M.; Borel, P.; Sabran, C.; Elis, S.; Guerif, F.; Maillard, V.

2026-09-01 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26360803 medRxiv
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The distribution of fat-soluble compounds (including antioxidants) in follicular fluid (FF) remains sparsely documented in relation to in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes and existing studies have reported diverging associations. This study aimed to describe plasma and FF concentrations of fat-soluble micronutrients in women undergoing IVF and to analyze their adjusted associations with ovarian function, embryo development and pregnancy outcomes. In 2021-2022, plasma and FF samples were collected from 82 women (first IVF cycle) at oocyte puncture, along with lifestyle data covering the three preceding months. Eleven compounds (two tocopherols, three xanthophylls, five carotenes and retinol) were quantified. All compounds were detected in both compartments (lowest in FF) except phytoene, undetectable in FF. Plasma and FF -tocopherol concentrations were positively associated with plasma estradiol levels before oocyte puncture (both p<0.01) while FF -carotene and lycopene were inversely associated with plasma progesterone concentrations (p=0.01 and 0.02, respectively). Plasma phytofluene and phytoene were positively associated with mature oocyte rate (p=0.03 and p=0.01, respectively), while FF retinol was negatively associated (p=0.03). Carotenes, tocopherols and retinol were inversely associated with later IVF outcomes: fertilization rate (p<0.001 for plasma g-tocopherol, 0.02 for FF retinol), top-quality embryo (p=0.02 for plasma phytofluene), biochemical pregnancy at day 7 post-embryo transfer (p=0.05 for plasma -tocopherol, 0.02 for plasma -carotene), clinical pregnancy (p=0.03 for plasma -tocopherol, 0.01 for plasma phytoene) and live birth (p=0.04 for plasma -tocopherol, 0.02 for plasma phytoene). Plasma and FF g-tocopherol were positively associated with embryo fragmentation (both p<0.05). Finally, among xanthophylls, only plasma {beta}-cryptoxanthin was positively associated with plasma progesterone concentrations (p=0.02). Our findings of heterogeneous associations between tocopherols, carotenes, retinol and IVF outcomes across the stages of IVF suggest a beneficial effect limited to early outcomes and support a complex and context-dependent role of these compounds in female reproduction. This manuscript has been submitted to PlosOne on August 19, 2026.

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Why has Nigerias neonatal mortality decline stalled? An ecological analysis of public health financing and macroeconomic instability, 1990-2024

Ezeanosike, O. B.; Ezeanosike, E.; Anoke, C. I.; Okoro, O.; Orjingene, O.; Chukwu, E.; Okoli, U.

2026-08-31 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361383 medRxiv
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Background. Nigeria carries one of the world's largest burdens of neonatal death and remains far from the Sustainable Development Goal target. Whether health financing and macroeconomic instability are associated with newborn survival has rarely been examined for neonatal mortality specifically. Methods. We conducted an ecological time-series analysis of national annual data, covering 1990-2024 for macroeconomic models (n = 35) and 2000-2023 for health-financing models (n = 24), the periods for which published data exist; no values were imputed. Neonatal mortality came from the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation 2025 round with 90% uncertainty intervals, and other series from the World Development Indicators. The primary model regressed log neonatal mortality on government health expenditure per capita (purchasing power parity), out-of-pocket share and currency instability, with a linear trend, a post-break trend spline and Newey-West standard errors; first differences without trend terms were the main sensitivity analysis. The break was located by segmented regression; currency instability was tested under four constructions. Results. The decline broke around 2010, the trend moving from -0.74 to +0.14 deaths per 1,000 annually (F = 145.4, p < 0.001). The subsequent rise fell within estimation uncertainty (2012: 37.6, 90% interval 33.9-41.5; 2022: 39.3, 33.4-46.4), supporting stagnation rather than reversal; Demographic and Health Surveys concur, reporting 42 per 1,000 for the five years preceding the 1990 survey and 41 preceding the 2024 survey. Government health expenditure per capita was inversely associated with neonatal mortality (-0.040, 95% CI -0.051 to -0.029, p < 0.001; first differences -0.016, p = 0.033) and was the only expenditure measure surviving both specifications; share-of-GDP measures did not (p = 0.196 and 0.889) and correlated positively in raw terms. Currency instability showed no association under any construction (p = 0.65-0.83). Public expenditure per capita moved non-monotonically, peaking in 2005, falling by 2010 and recovering by 2023 to a level still below the 2005 peak. Conclusions. Neonatal mortality in Nigeria is ecologically associated with public health expenditure per capita, but not with commonly used share-based measures, nor with currency instability. Rising public spending accompanied stalled progress, directing attention toward how health resources are converted into services. Annual modelled mortality estimates could not support year-to-year inference, a limitation relevant to comparable studies

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Long-term outcomes of cruciate ligament injury: evidence from New Zealand linked register data

Pryymachenko, Y.; Wilson, R.; Abbott, J. H.

2026-09-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361565 medRxiv
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Objectives To analyse the long-term effects of a cruciate ligament (CL) injury on health and socioeconomic outcomes. Methods We used a comprehensive national injury insurance database to identify CL injuries occurring in New Zealand between 2009 and 2022, and employed a doubly robust staggered difference-in-differences research design to identify the effects of these injuries on outcomes up to 10 years after injury. The outcomes of interest were healthcare use (hospitalisations, emergency department visits, medications, knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis), associated healthcare costs, and labour market outcomes (employment rates, income, and government benefit payments). Results We identified 61 344 CL injuries for inclusion in the analysis. Over 10-year follow-up, a CL injury resulted in increased healthcare use (0.6 more hospitalizations [95%CI 0.4 to 0.7], 1.7 more days spent in hospital [95%CI 1.3 to 2.1], 0.4 more emergency department visits [95%CI 0.3 to 0.6], 2.5 more outpatient visits [95%CI 1.8 to 3.2], and 4.7 more medications dispensed [95%CI -1.8 to 11.2]) and public healthcare costs ($7 537; 95%CI 5 888 to 9 186), reduced income (-$6 060; 95%CI -11 644 to -475), and increased benefit payments ($1 152; 95%CI 542 to 1 761). Conclusion CL injuries have long-term impacts on healthcare use and socioeconomic outcomes. Strategies to reduce the incidence of CL injuries have the potential to realise large health and economic benefits.

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Development of a new trauma dataset over 38 years from the Young Finns Study

Saarinen, A.; Asikainen, T.; Lehtimäki, T.; Raitakari, O.; Keltikangas-Järvinen, L.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361417 medRxiv
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Background: Previous trauma research includes many limitations, such as the scarcity of pretraumatic health measurements and assessment of traumatic experiences with a broad scope across the lifespan. To respond to these gaps, we aimed to develop a new, prospective, population-based trauma dataset from childhood to middle age. Methods: We used the Young Finns Study that is a population-based, multi-generational, prospective study (n = 3596 for the main generation). It has started in 1980 (baseline assessment) and includes follow-ups in 1983, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2007, 2011/2012, and 2018-2020. From the 38-year follow-up and ten measurement points of the YFS, we collected all relevant trauma variables, including both free-format and structured questions that both the participants and their parents responded to. By a data-driven case-to-case analysis, we developed a scale to numerically capture variation in the quality of the experiences. Results: Our final dataset captured a total of 7769 traumatic experiences. We also developed the Traumatic Experience Severity Scale (TESS), including six subscales such as shamefulness, rarity, danger to life or health, effects on everyday life, human-made physical threat, and whether the target person was within or outside one's household. We also preprocessed the dataset to be later easily interleaved with other psychological, cardiovascular, and epigenetic variables of the YFS. Conclusions: We believe this new trauma dataset with thousands of experiences across the lifespan provides new opportunities to multidisciplinary, lifelong trauma research.

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Primary Care Quality and Inappropriate Community Antibiotic Use: A Double Machine Learning Instrumental Variable Approach

Chen, Y.; Yi, H.; Rao, S.; Weber, A.; Hassmiller-Lich, K.; Sylvia, S.

2026-08-31 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361459 medRxiv
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Inappropriate antibiotic use presents a major global health challenge, particularly in low-resource settings where access to quality care is limited but antibiotics remain relatively unrestricted. This study estimates the causal effect of frontline primary care quality on inappropriate community antibiotic use, combining detailed community-based data from approximately 100 rural villages in rural China with an instrumental variable (IV) approach embedded within a double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. We linked objective measures of village doctor clinical practice quality, measured through unannounced standardized patient visits, to household-level antibiotic use data collected from the same villages. To identify the causal effect, we constructed multiple candidate instruments from extensive provider characteristics and used an ensemble of machine learning algorithms within a flexible DML-IV framework to approximate an optimal instrument, addressing a many-weak-instruments problem. We found that improving village provider clinical practice quality reduced both antibiotic receipt during healthcare encounters for common diseases and household antibiotic storage for future self-medication. Our findings suggest that strengthening frontline primary care quality can meaningfully reduce inappropriate community antibiotic use without restricting access to essential treatment. More broadly, this study illustrates how causal machine learning can strengthen conventional causal estimation in complex observational settings in global health economics research.